It will be a busy start to the week in China. The Fourth Plenum meetings run from Monday to Wednesday, with the primary focus expected to be the discussion of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. It will cover the key development plans for China between 2026 and 2030. While the full Five-Year Plan likely won’t be available until next year’s Two Sessions, we will likely get some information on the key themes discussed. Of particular interest are priorities for development, including how to expand consumption, foster innovation, and the strategic focusses going forward.
Monday morning kicks off with a decision on loan prime rates. No change is expected after the People’s Bank of China stood pat. Also Monday, China reports third-quarter GDP. Barring a stronger-than-expected rebound in September — we are currently expecting slight slowdowns in retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment growth — the data is likely to show China slowed substantially to 4.5% year-on-year. We will also get September property price data. Prices have been on a negative trajectory in recent months. With no fresh stimulus, there’s little reason to expect a significant turnaround.
