Consultancy sees Brazil super soy crop, exports growing aggressively in new season
Soybean exports from Brazil are expected to total 91.5 million tonnes in 2023, up from the 77.2 million estimated for 2022, as the world’s biggest supplier prepares to plant a super crop.
The projection, made by private consultancy Safras & Mercado on Friday, reflects bullish yield and acreage forecasts for the next season, which comes after one in which a drought spoiled part of the crop.
“The recovery of Brazilian production, with a new record output potential, should also lead to a new export record,” Safras’ analyst Luiz Fernando Roque said in the statement.
If that scenario is confirmed, he said Brazil will be able recover some of the export market share lost to U.S. soy farmers due to the production drop in the 2021/2022 cycle.
According to Roque, strong domestic processing margins and potentially higher demand for biodiesel should also result in an increase in domestic crushing activity.
Safras foresees Brazil’s soybean crushing at 49.5 million tonnes in 2023, up from 47.9 million tonnes in 2022.
Brazil’s 2022/2023 soybean season will kick off in September in key states like Mato Grosso. The crop is expected to reach 154.53 million tonnes, up 18% from the previous cycle, according to Safras data.
Total demand for Brazilian soy — including domestic and export market demand — is forecast at 144.6 million tonnes, growing 13% over the previous year. If that projection is confirmed, ending stocks in Brazil would soar by 239%, from 2.93 million tonnes to 9.92 million tonnes, Safras added.
“With the probable super-harvest, ending stocks should have a strong growth, even with the increase in consumption,” the Roque said.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ana Mano Editing by Nick Zieminski)