This marks a reversal from the trend reported in the previous month’s release, when UK residential property transactions rose by 17% year-on-year in May, boosted partly by the low base created by stamp duty changes in early 2025.
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A tough comparison — and tougher conditions ahead
Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group, struck a cautious but slightly encouraged tone on the non-seasonally adjusted picture. “While transactions are inherently backward-looking, the non-seasonally adjusted data offers some encouragement with activity edging up in September compared with August,” she said. “However, no matter which way you look at it, transactions remained lower than a year earlier, highlighting the mood of the market in the face of continued volatility and uncertainty.”
Ryan McGrath, director of second-charge mortgages at Pepper Money, was less optimistic about the near-term outlook. He noted that conditions have deteriorated sharply since the summer deals now completing were agreed. “Since those deals were agreed, inflation has risen to 3.5%, sub-5% fixed rates have all but disappeared, and average fixed rates are close to 6%, a level last seen three years ago,” he said.
McGrath added that further annual falls in transaction volumes look likely for the remainder of the year, pointing to Bank of England data showing mortgage approvals falling for a third consecutive month as further evidence of a market under stress.
